Decision Risk
“The person who says he knows what he thinks but cannot express it usually does not know what he thinks.” ― Mortimer J. Adler, How to Read a Book
The world (philosophers, economists, psychologists, etc.) produced and keeps producing, an enormous amount of insights on decision-making. Some of those insights are based on decades lasting research, others are derived from practical experience. Some address fundamental questions, others solve particular problems. Some of it takes you conflicting directions, while others directly oppose each other.
After spending 10+ years studying different aspects of decision-making I found decision problem to be like a massive puzzle. An incomplete puzzle with pieces, that sometimes overlap and often do not fit together, spread all over the table. As the amount of insight is increasing, new pieces will regularly be dropped on the table, however, the puzzles will never be complete.
“Decision Risk” is my notebook on decision-making in which I try to put at least some of the pieces together. Its focus is completely practical- how to build robust decision practices, both individually and in a complex organization.
As in this notebook aims to make sense of a massive field of knowledge, it has to address two key challenges. First, it needs to resolve the multiple contradictions present in the literature. I start this journey without any favourites among existing theories or view-points, but with a strong preference for scientific-method. As a result, I will choose ideas supported by empirical evidence over theories based on unrealistic assumptions, and mathematical rigour over verbal arguments (whenever it is plausible as mathematical rigour is often accompanied by unrealistic assumptions). Second, it needs to resist false generalizations, especially in the area of human judgment. Despite the temptation, one must be careful not to generalize from research done with university students in the decision labs to all areas of human decision-making.
Anyone reading this should keep a few things in mind:
- It is work in progress: errors, omission and other flaws to be expected.
- Most, if not all, of the ideas presented in the text, are not original. I will provide as many sources as possible, but some ideas stay in your head even when their authors fade.
- Any use of information in this notebook for anything important is at your own risk.